李苏苏¹,王海清¹,张玉涛²,曹广阔¹

• 1:化学品安全全国重点实验室， 中国石油大学(华东)机电工程学院， 山东 青岛 266580
• 2:中海油安全技术服务有限公司， 天津 300456

摘要(Abstract)：

为了识别和量化网络攻击下可能引发的生产运行系统影响,基于过程危害和影响分析(PHIA)和贝叶斯网络(BN)理论建立了工业网络遭受攻击下的风险分析协同框架,即过程影响贝叶斯网络(PBN)模型。首先识别了危险因素及网络攻击可能引发的过程系统影响,然后引入遗漏噪声逻辑门(LNOR)建立概率混合量化模型,与优化的最大期望值算法(EM)结合,解决了传统模型参数不确定性问题。通过将PBN模型应用到连续搅拌釜与加热器(CSTH)过程系统中,在生产网络发生不同攻击场景时,实时更新预测生产故障概率,并以攻击路径覆盖率(PRC)评估模型性能。结果表明,最大风险传播路径发生在组合攻击场景下,相对于传统攻击树模型,PRC显著提高。分析结果有助于完善化工过程系统网络攻击路径识别和相关风险的定量评估,为系统提供最优的风险防控部署策略。

关键词(KeyWords)： 网络攻击;过程危害和影响分析;贝叶斯网络;风险分析

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 国家重点研发计划课题(2024YFC3013701,2019YFB2006305)。

作者(Author): 李苏苏¹,王海清¹,张玉涛²,曹广阔¹

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