张子扬,任翔,吕成,李绍军

• 1:华东理工大学化工过程先进控制和优化技术教育部重点实验室

摘要(Abstract)：

基于贝叶斯模型以特定化工生产装置为例,定量分析班组人员操作对化工风险的影响。化工生产安全风险主要来自于设备的老化和人员的误操作。轮班班组的操作能力以及不同班组之间的关联性很可能影响化工过程的可靠性。Gaussian copula可以体现变量之间复杂的非线性关系,因此利用贝叶斯分析结合Gaussian copula可以较好地评估安全系统和轮班班组风险。在此,提出了不同班组操作的时序性和耦合性来体现班组操作的顺序性和班组间的关联性等特征。Gaussian copula函数体现班组与安全控制系统之间以及班组之间的关联性,进而利用贝叶斯模型进行定量风险评估,结果更切合实际。

关键词(KeyWords)： 贝叶斯风险分析;班组;安全控制系统;Gaussian copula;风险评估

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 国家自然科学基金(21176072)

作者(Author): 张子扬,任翔,吕成,李绍军

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